Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank would likely not be comfortable enough with the path of inflation by its next meeting in March to cut interest rates.
“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that. But that’s to be seen,” Powell said.
The statement came in a news conference after the Fed’s January meeting, where the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. Powell did say earlier in the news conference that rate cuts would likely begin at some point this year.
The Fed’s policy statement released earlier Wednesday included several tweaks that suggested the central bank was taking further rate hikes off the table but not yet ready to cut. Powell’s comments appeared to clarify for traders that the stance would continue for at least one more meeting.
“The Fed was badly burned in late 2021 and 2022 when they thought high inflation would be transitory, then got caught by surprise when it was higher and more persistent than expected. They want to avoid making the same mistake twice,” Comerica Bank’s chief economist, Bill Adams, said in a note Wednesday afternoon.
“The Fed will wait to pull the trigger on rate cuts until they see the whites of 2% inflation’s eyes,” Adams added.
Powell also declined to commit to a series of rate cuts once the Fed makes its first move, saying that it “would depend on the data.”
The central bank’s next two policy decision dates are scheduled for March 20 and May 1. In recent months, traders and Wall Street strategists have focused on those two meetings as likely candidates for the first rate cut, as inflation continues to fall and job growth slows.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is updated near the end of each month. There will likely be only one more PCE reading before the Fed’s March meeting, but three more before May.
聯準會（Fed）台北時間周四凌晨3時公布決策聲明，各界預料利率會保持不變在23年來最高點，眾所關注的焦點是，他們是否會談到何時降息。
過去三次開會中，Fed 政策利率均按兵不動，但還在辯論是否需要進一步升息。有「Fed 傳聲筒」稱號的華爾街日報記者提米羅斯指出，Fed 官員如今正將注意力轉向何時降息，儘管有幾位官員已表明不必操之過急。
若指望 Fed 在這次會議暗示不排除3月降息的投資人，可能會大失所望，美股也可能下跌。
以下是 Fed 決策值得關注的四大要點：
1. 政策聲明
Fed 聯邦資金利率預料將維持在5.25％至5.5％之間，政策上預料不會有變化，關鍵是鮑爾和聯邦公開市場操作委員會（FOMC）是否會對未來幾個月提供任何指引。
Sevens Reports 創辦人 Tom Essaye 評道：「Fed 若認真認為今年只降息兩到三次，那聲明應會強力排斥3月降息的想法。」
提米羅斯認為，至少可以確定的是，Fed 的政策聲明預料會刪除表明升息可能性大於降息的所謂「緊縮傾向」，因為幾乎所有 Fed 官員都表示沒必要再度升息，若保留緊縮傾向反而會讓人困惑。
2. 鮑爾記者會
利率市場投資人近日估計 Fed 下次會議（3月19日至20日）降息的機率在50%左右。由於政策聲明指引的功能減弱，市場焦點將轉向鮑爾對目前市場預期的抗拒程度。
貝萊德全球固定收益投資長里德（Rick Rieder）認為，即使 Fed 敞開降息的大門來陳明更中性的貨幣政策，也不會急著降息。他說：「我仍認為3月降息太早了，要 Fed 在3月開始動作，我認為需要比我們目前看到更為具體經濟下滑數據。」「我的基本預測是從5月開始降息，每隔一次會議降息25個基點」。
有些官員已表示，儘管他們預料通膨會繼續下降，降息並不迫切。Fed 理事沃勒本月表示，只要經濟景氣持續強勁，降息確切的日程沒那麼重要，因為 Fed 每六周就開會一次。
耶魯管理學院教授、前 Fed 經濟學家 William English 說：「現在是儘可能減少限制的時候，所以基本上不會有太多指引。」
3. 風險控管
提米羅斯分析，在閉門辯論的過程中，官員對於如何傳達他們對未來幾周內的展望，可能尤其重要。有人認為，如果物價停止下降，通膨可能在未來數個月加速上揚，因此 Fed 應該很不願意表明任何寬鬆的計畫。
也有人表示，即使 Fed 不太可能暗示3月會降息，官員也不應該排除這一可能性。瑞銀首席美國經濟學家Jonathan Pingle 說：「通膨下降的速度比他們預測更快。這表明未來幾次會議有必要調整幾次名目利率。」他認為3月降息是正當的。
4. 資產負債表
Fed 去年夏季即停止升息，同時循著另一途徑悄悄緊縮貨幣政策，即每個月以800億美元之速縮減名下7.7兆美元的債券和其他資產的部位。
Fed 官員可能在本周開始商討減緩、而非終止這種所謂的量化緊縮。Fed 官員上個月表示，他們希望將管理資產負債表的變動事先傳達給社會大眾。
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